March Madness 2025

Housekeeping: As always, 1-4 seeded teams with negative turnover margins make the sweet 16 at a 40% lower rate than those who hold onto the ball more than they give it up.

Michigan State, Alabama, and Kentucky all have negative turnover margins. Also added in Effective FG% this year for kicks and giggles.

East Region:

No expected major upsets, do have VCU beating BYU as the only thing of note. Duke takes care of business against Alabama as well.

Midwest is where things can get a bit more Frisky. I do have Gonzaga as one of the highest rated teams, so things in KC might get weird for Houston. Thinking with heart and not head, i do like Purdue over Clemson. Model likes Illinois more than I do, and has Tennessee over Houston to win the midwest. Teams with stronger DEF EFG tend to do worse, so surprised a bit with how defense oriented this region was.

West was interesting as i actually had Oklahoma as a favorite over Florida in the second round lol. Uconn/Oklahoma a close game and if Uconn wins, i do have florida favored the rest of the way to the final 4. Kansas beats St Johns, who i have graded out to be a 7 seed equivalent. Oof.

Auburn favored all the way in the south, even over Louisville in Lexington. UCSD over Michigan and i do like Yale over Texas AM as well. UNC over Ole Miss was a personal choice. South and the East both have the weakest 2-5s, so do think Auburn and Duke have the easiest path to a title game, where i have Auburn favored in the rematch.